It’s been an unusually cool winter on the Gold Coast this year. Some mornings, I have seen temperatures in the low teens. I have also been writing the final chapters of my third novel in the Major Gask series which is taking place during a cold, bleak, dreich Scottish winter – which, of course – puts my comments about the Gold Coast into context!

With several chapters describing grey, low-lying clouds, snow covered landscapes and rain rattling against window panes, I guess it’s not surprising that I’m thinking about climate change.

With everything going on in the world these days, it’s hard to raise your eyes to look beyond the horizon.  After all, if a train is hurtling towards you at 100 miles an hour, your first concern is to get out of the way, even if on either side of the track you have an insurgent army shooting at you or a raging flood to contend with.

However, a couple of recent climate studies had me thinking seriously about where we are headed – maybe even within my lifetime – and I’m no spring chicken.

For example, we are already seeing insurers decline to take on flood risk in Florida – which makes me wonder, with Trump’s casual denial of climate science, whether Mar-a-Lago mightn’t be partly submerged in a climatic demonstration of karma. Scientific bodies are indeed predicting this.

An under-reported issue is the impact of something called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – an ocean system that transports warm water around the Atlantic Ocean. We have only been monitoring this for 20 years, so it can be difficult to determine core trends.  However Early Warning Signals (EWS) – an alternative to the established climate models – are predicting an AMOC collapse – perhaps before the end of the century.

Why?  Because melting ice sheets are driving lots of fresh water into the North Atlantic.

The collapse of the AMOC would probably produce a rapid rise in sea levels in North America, a sudden and severe drop in temperatures across Northern Europe and serious disruption to Asian monsoons with all the knock-on effects to migration, agriculture etc. etc.

Two studies are relevant.  At Utrecht University, Renee van Westen’s team suggest that the AMOC could begin collapsing between 2037 and 2064.  This followed a paper in 2023 by Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen from the University of Copenhagen that also predicted a mid-century collapse.  And Stefan Rahmstorf at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research says ‘there is now enough real-world data to demonstrate that AMOC has indeed weakened in recent decades’.

I remember when scientists were claiming that we would run out of oil back in the 1960s.  We didn’t, we haven’t, mainly because those scientists did not anticipate the technological advances that would allow for deep sea and inhospitable region exploration and recovery.  The same could be true here; there is indeed a concern that climate models aren’t yet accurate enough and historical data not reliable enough to make such predictions with confidence.

If you were in the Boy Scouts, you will remember the motto: Be Prepared.  I wish we had more ex-Boy Scouts in power today because there is one thing I am quite confident about.  We are not prepared for the changes coming no matter how imprecise the forecasts and, with autocrats caring nought for the welfare of those they rule and democratic leaders limited to a 4 or 5 year horizon until the next election, I see nothing happening that will change that state of global unpreparedness.  Pack your swimming trunks, Donald.