Blog

I am sitting at my keyboard looking towards the Pacific Ocean, overlooking a calm lake on the Gold Coast of Australia, watching black swans glide across a mirror-like surface. The swans remind me of 'black swan' events - rare, unpredictable, high-impact occurrences that are inappropriately rationalised in hindsight as having been obvious. These outliers fundamentally change systems, often causing catastrophic economic or social damage. Examples include the...